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Respond to the question: odds decision theory?

08/13/2008 01:00 PM by curious; odds, decision theory
The National Electrical Code is the electrician's bible. Electricians seem to believe that if someone doesn't follow code he/she is doomed.

I have two degrees in electrical/electronic engineering but I am not an electrician. I wired up a closet light not according to the NEC. I have taken reasonable care with this installation.

I wish to debunk the electrician's belief in the Code.

Dividing my yearly home insurance premium by the replacement value of my house, I get a ratio of 1/>500. I believe this is the chance that I will lose my home, for any reason, within a year.

According to the mortality table, I have a 1/50 chance of dying within the next year.

Therefore, since the odds of me dying is 10x the odds of my house catching fire, I don't have to worry about my nonstandard wiring;
true or false or comments?

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