forthcoming Games and Economic  Behavior

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An Easier Way to Calibrate

Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine

March 17, 1995

revised: December 7, 1996

Abstract: A forecaster is said to be calibrated if, in the asymptotic limit, the empirical frequencies in periods where each particular probability distribution is forecast exactly match the forecast probabilities. Recently, Foster and Vohra have constructed random strategies that are approximately calibrated to any desired degree. Their construction which relies on a series of approximations is somewhat complicated. The purpose of this note is to show that a more straightforward construction serves the same purpose.